Getting back to the basics of this blog

In New York City, Fewer Murders on Rainy Days

On Aug. 26, 2006, something unusual happened in New York City.

It was a Saturday in the heart of summer, the kind of day that averages more than two homicides. Yet the police reported no killings.

One other thing happened that day: it rained.

In fact, an analysis by The New York Times of rainfall and homicides for the last six years shows that when it rains substantially in the summertime, there are fewer homicides.

When there was no precipitation, there was an average 17 homicides every 10 days. But when there was an inch or more of rain, the average dropped to 14.

That does not surprise Vernon J. Geberth a former Bronx homicide squad commanding officer. He said when there was a downpour, the police would sometimes joke, “The best cop in the world is on duty tonight.”

The gap is even wider when looking just at Saturdays in the summer. Those days typically post the highest number of homicides in the course of a year. When there was no rain, the average number of homicides for the 10 Saturdays in summer jumped to 24. For those few Saturdays doused with at least an inch of rain, the rate was 18.

The rest here.